【轉錄】Nouriel Roubini 的12個階段經濟末日景象

紐約大學教授Nouriel Roubini曾提出12個階段的經濟末日景象，
準確預測到目前的經濟衰退而揚名國際。

他在本月表示，美國已處於12個階段的最後幾個階段，意味著更嚴重的經濟崩潰可能迫在眉睫。

這12個階段是：
1.美國房地產出現史上最嚴重衰退；
2.次級房貸的損失造成房貸危機漫延；
3.無擔保的消費者貸款出現巨額損失；
4.單一險種保險公司遭降等；
5.商業房地產市場崩潰；
6.一些大型區域銀行破產；
7.高風險及魯莽的槓桿購併出現巨額損失；
8.企業湧現違約潮；
9.影子(shadow)金融體系(由非銀行的金融公司組成)崩潰
10.股價進一步重挫
11.金融市場的流動性枯竭
12.虧損、減資、信用萎縮、被迫清算、及資產拍 賣形成惡性循環

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 12 Steps of Nouriel Roubini

After having been high on rising asset prices for the past 15 or so years, perhaps investors are now in need of "the 12 step programme." But not just the AA programme.

Back in February, 2007, Nouriel Roubini listed 12 steps he expected would be followed as the US economy went from housing bust to financial meltdown to depression. He says we're now close to the last of these steps:

1. First, this is the worst housing recession in US history and there is no sign it will bottom out any time soon…
2. Second, losses for the financial system from the subprime disaster are now estimated to be as high as $250 to $300 billion. But the financial losses will not be only in subprime mortgages and the related RMBS and CDOs. They are now spreading to near prime and prime mortgages as the same reckless lending practices in subprime …were occurring across the entire spectrum of mortgages...
3. Third, the recession will lead – as it is already doing – to a sharp increase in defaults on other forms of unsecured consumer debt: credit cards, auto loans, student loans…
4. Fourth, while there is serious uncertainty about the losses that monolines will undertake on their insurance of RMBS, CDO and other toxic ABS products, it is now clear that such losses are much higher than the $10-15 billion rescue package that regulators are trying to patch up. Some monolines are actually borderline insolvent and none of them deserves at this point a AAA rating regardless of how much realistic recapitalization is provided…The downgrade of the monolines will also lead to large losses – and potential runs – on the money market funds that invested in some of these toxic products. The money market funds that are backed by banks or that bought liquidity protection from banks against the risk of a fall in the NAV may avoid a run but such a rescue will exacerbate the capital and liquidity problems of their underwriters…
5. Fifth, the commercial real estate loan market will soon enter into a meltdown similar to the subprime one…
6. Sixth, it is possible that some large regional or even national bank that is very exposed to mortgages, residential and commercial, will go bankrupt. Thus some big banks may join the 200 plus subprime lenders that have gone bankrupt....
7. Seventh, the banks losses on their portfolio of leveraged loans are already large and growing. The ability of financial institutions to syndicate and securitize their leveraged loans – a good chunk of which were issued to finance very risky and reckless LBOs – is now at serious risk. .…
8. Eighth, once a severe recession is underway a massive wave of corporate defaults will take place. In a typical year US corporate default rates are about 3.8% (average for 1971-2007); in 2006 and 2007 this figure was a puny 0.6%. And in a typical US recession such default rates surge above 10%....Corporate default rates will surge during the 2008 recession and peak well above 10% based on recent studies....
9. Ninth, the “shadow banking system” (as defined by the PIMCO folks) or more precisely the “shadow financial system” (as it is composed by non-bank financial institutions) will soon get into serious trouble. ... in the case of financial distress and/or illiquidity they may go bankrupt because of both insolvency and/or lack of liquidity and inability to roll over or refinance their short term liabilities. Deepening problems in the economy and in the financial markets and poor risk managements will lead some of these institutions to go belly up...
10. Tenth, stock markets in the US and abroad will start pricing a severe US recession – rather than a mild recession – and a sharp global economic slowdown.... Long covering and margin calls will lead to a cascading fall in equity markets in the US and a transmission to global equity markets. US and global equity markets will enter into a persistent bear market as in a typical US recession the S&P500 falls by about 28%. ...
11. Eleventh, the worsening credit crunch that is affecting most credit markets and credit derivative markets will lead to a dry-up of liquidity in a variety of financial markets, including otherwise very liquid derivatives markets. ...
12. Twelfth, a vicious circle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation and fire sales of assets at below fundamental prices will ensue leading to a cascading and mounting cycle of losses and further credit contraction. In illiquid market actual market prices are now even lower than the lower fundamental value that they now have given the credit problems in the economy. Market prices include a large illiquidity discount on top of the discount due to the credit and fundamental problems of the underlying assets that are backing the distressed financial assets. Capital losses will lead to margin calls and further reduction of risk taking by a variety of financial institutions that are now forced to mark to market their positions. Such a forced fire sale of assets in illiquid markets will lead to further losses that will further contract credit and trigger further margin calls and disintermediation of credit. The triggering event for the next round of this cascade is the downgrade of the monolines and the ensuing sharp drop in equity markets; both will trigger margin calls and further credit disintermediation.

He continues,

A contagious and cascading spiral of credit disintermediation, credit contraction, sharp fall in asset prices and sharp widening in credit spreads will then be transmitted to most parts of the financial system. This massive credit crunch will make the economic contraction more severe and lead to further financial losses. Total losses in the financial system will add up to more than $1 trillion and the economic recession will become deeper, more protracted and severe. ...

Can the Fed and other financial officials avoid this nightmare scenario that keeps them awake at night? The answer to this question ... is twofold: first, it is not easy to manage and control such a contagious financial crisis that is more severe and dangerous than any faced by the US in a quarter of a century; second, the extent and severity of this financial crisis will depend on whether the policy response – monetary, fiscal, regulatory, financial and otherwise – is coherent, timely and credible. I will argue – in my next article - that one should be pessimistic about the ability of policy and financial authorities to manage and contain a crisis of this magnitude; thus, one should be prepared for the worst, i.e. a systemic financial crisis....